Monday 27 September 2010

Pakistan’s wealth of possibilities but degenerate Government is its biggest failure!

Richard Holbrook, the US envoy to South East Asia told a meeting of newspaper editors in Karachi: “The international community is not going to be able to raise tens of billions of dollars, you (Pakistan) have to figure out a way to raise the money.”

In response to this desertion, finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh and State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Shahid Hafeez Kardar informed the IMF in a letter that the Pakistan government will introduce a temporary 10% income tax surcharge to generate revenues to meet the costs of reconstruction.

The Monsoon floods caused havoc to the nation, but the incompetent response of the government compounded the situation. Whilst the international community managed to cobble together some funds to help Pakistan deal with the disaster, it’s only a fraction of what the West has given in the name of fighting terrorism.

With an annual budget of only $23 billion, the Pakistan government has sent the begging bowl around the world to keep its economy afloat. Irrespective of the disaster the international community expects their loans to be repaid. During the current fiscal year, the government needs to repay foreign loans of $2 billion (total debt is $50 billion) and make interest payments of $893 million. Zardari has added almost $12 billion to Pakistan’s external debt over the past two years.

Successive Pakistan governments have surrendered the nation’s sovereignty to Western economic institutions which are bankrupt of any real policies that would rid Pakistan of such servitude.

Here we present eight policies that would raise revenue, address foreign debt commitments and potentially end foreign dependency:

01. Thar Coal – The Thar Coal Field in Sindh is the world’s largest coal field. Thar coal is one of the world’s largest lignite deposits discovered, spread over more than 9,000 sq. km it comprises an estimated 850 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) of coal. Pakistan governments have never undertaken a full assessment of the field, neither have they plans to mine the coal. The export of Thar Coal would generate revenues of over $1 trillion. Converted into oil Thar Coal would generate over 650 billion barrels of crude oil, at the current market rate of $80 that would generate $5.2 trillion.

02. Reqo dik minerals – Reko Diq is a small town in Chagai District, Baluchistan. It possesses the world’s fifth largest reserves of copper and over 20 million ounces of untapped gold reserves. Pakistan’s gold reserves alone would bring in revenues of $25 billion (at current price of $1279 $/oz).

03. Salt – The Khewra Salt Mines are among world oldest and biggest salt mines. Salt has been mined at Khewra since 320 BC in an underground area of about 42 sq miles. Khewra salt mine has an estimated total of 220 million tonnes of rock salt deposits. At current market rates this would bring in revenues of $13.2 billion. The Pakistan government still uses outdated methods to mine the salt, due to this it has a very low annual production rate of 325,000 tons salt per annum.

04. Off-shore oil – Although Pakistan currently has oil reserves of a mere 300 million barrels of oil, most of which is located in Balochistan, its untapped reserves remain a matter of speculation. Though no scientific evaluation has been ever carried out it is believed potential off-shore oil reserves range from 6 billion barrels with the higher end of the estimate, according to Frederic Grare, a Balochistan expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, of an estimated six trillion barrels of oil. With a full assessment to ascertain if this is the case this could potentially end Pakistani foreign dependency.

05. Agriculture – Whilst Pakistan’s agriculture has been greatly affected by the devastating floods, Pakistan has no shortage of fertile land. Pakistan’ largest food crop is wheat. Pakistan produces over 21 million metric tons of wheat, more than all of Africa (20 million) and nearly as much as all of Latin America (24 million metric tons). Pakistan is the 12th largest agricultural producer in the world with agrarian output of $32 billion annually. Pakistan is already the largest producer of many household kitchen items. The Middle East, a-stone-throws away from south Pakistan, is a huge potential market for Pakistani agriculture as the region is largely desert land.

06. Debt write-off – Pakistan could default on its $50 billion debt, which it owes primarily to the IMF and World Bank. It could also argue that its debt should be forgiven in the face of its worst disaster in the 63 year history of the nation. Its debt is a huge drain on the government’s budget as over 30% of the budget is spent on various debts Pakistan owes. A default would have ramifications for Pakistan as it would create doubts about Pakistan’s economic credibility. This means Pakistan will have to pursue a policy of self-sufficiency, which will allow it to finally remove the shackles of foreign dependency.

07. War Cost – Fighting America’s war on terror has cost Pakistan dearly through the interruption to trade, instability and the channeling of vital funds away from health, education and key sectors to fund the war effort. Pakistan suffered huge losses, amounting to $34.5 billion, since 2001 for its role in the war on terror, which foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi mentioned during a news briefing on the 14th November, 2008 in New York. This is money that could have easily been used for the benefit of the nation.

08. Arms Sales – The JF-17 is a fourth generation fighter jet, designed and developed jointly by China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAC) and Pakistan’s Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC). The project costs were shared equally by China and Pakistan. The fighter jet is now being produced in Pakistan. All Pakistan needs to do is develop an export list. At $15 million per unit the sale of 800 jets would net Pakistan $1.3 trillion..

Pakistan has ample resources to repay its debts many times over. Pakistan from some perspectives is in a better position demographically and from the perspective of mineral wealth on the eve of development compared to nations such as Germany and Japan who lacked the population and energy resources but still overcame such challenges. What Pakistan needs is not more of the same failed policies of running to the IMF and the US but a new leadership which puts the interests of the Ummah first rather than America. (Ends/)
See Also: The Quest for Economic Progress – An Islamic Blueprint for Pakistan
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Sunday 26 September 2010

Basel III – averting another financial crisis or protecting vested interests?


On the second anniversary of the financial meltdown that precipitated the deepest recession since the Great Depression capitalist nations have agreed a set of rules – known as Basel III – to help ward off another such crisis.
Critics of Basel III argue that the reforms don’t go far enough and will not be fully implemented until 2019 before which there may well be another crisis, more likely if the economy goes into a double dip recession. The main reform is a three-fold increase in capital reserve requirements. However, a three-fold increase on average tier 1 capital ratios of a mere 2% currently to cover against bankruptcy doesn’t bode much confidence in financial institutions with casino-like business models.

Advocates of Basel III say proposed capital reserve requirements of up to 7% are more than sufficient. A too high a capital requirement they insist could derail the nascent economic recovery – stifling banks ability to finance economic growth.

Western policymakers admit that more is still required to make the capitalist financial system safe and resilient. To be presented at the next G20 in November these will reportedly include greater supervisory regulation and more stringent capital adequacy requirements for systematically critical banks that are considered ‘too big to fail’.

For many this tinkering with simple detail is a massive disappointment following the immense hyperbole about a different more compassionate and caring capitalism during the depth of the financial crisis. As life long assumptions about the self-correcting nature of the financial markets were shattered and so-called empirical analysis about the diversification of capital market risk was proved outright baseless western policymakers and politicians vowed to fundamentally and radically change how finance worked.

Given the near collapse of the western financial system and the complete and total socialisation of financial assets to resuscitate it, Basel III and the other ancillary proposals are pathetic – weak, inadequate and ineffectual.

Firstly, if capital reserve ratios were raised to even 50% it would mean only half of banking liabilities are somewhat guaranteed. Its farcical to suggest that banking will now some how be safe and resilient with capital adequacy requirements of a mere 7%. Secondly, with respect to greater supervision to avert another crisis it is pertinent to note that in the UK alone three regulatory authorities – the Financial Services Authority; the Bank of England; and HM Treasury – armed with a plethora of regulation could not stop the crisis in 2008. Finally, protecting banks ‘too big to fail’ betrays the capitalists’ predisposition to safeguard incumbent and vested interests even if competition is irrevocably undermined.

It is clear that the Basel III proposals will do little to avert another financial crisis as the regulations do not address systemic failures in the financial system. In spite of the colossal bail out for the financial sector for which the weak and vulnerable are now suffering due to spending cuts Basel III is only designed to safeguard the failing financial structures and extend capitalism’s ever diminishing ‘sell by date’. (HTB Econ)
For Transcript of the above Video; Click here 


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Thursday 23 September 2010

London IIBI Monthly Lecture: 13th October 2010

Topic: The Small World of Islamic Finance
Social Capital's impact on Shari'ah Governance

Speaker: Murat Hasan Unal, Founder and Executive Board Member
Fouds@Work AG - The Investment Industry's Strategy;Consultant,Germany                                  

Date : 13th October 2010  
Time : 6.15pm


Venue: British Bankers' Association, Pinners Hall, 105 - 108 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1EX (This building is near Liverpool Street, Bank and Moorgate Underground Station)

About the Lecture:
Since Murat Hasan Ünal (Funds@Work AG) published his first report about Shariah scholars´ involvement in financial services institutions across the world (March 2009), creating substantial transparency, there has been a lot of discussion about Shari’ah Scholars, their board memberships and proper Shari’ah governance
He will highlight the latest results of Funds@Work´s network analysis in the Islamic Finance Services Industry covering almost 1400 board positions, over 320 scholars, and 400 organisations which are engaged in this sector. He will discuss the IFSB, Bank Negara Malaysia and AAOIFI standards for Shari’ah governance as currently met by financial services institutions and will recommend governance measures which go well beyond the existing frameworks. This work is also a result of Murat´s Doctoral Studies at IE Business School where he focuses on the intersection of social capital with corporate governance

About the Speaker:
Murat Hasan Ünal studied Business Administration and graduated from the University of Adelaide/Australia. He worked for an international management consulting firm after his studies and joined the mutual fund/financial services business in 1998. As Head of Investment Marketing and Sales within Citibank Northern Europe (focusing on Belgium & France) in Brussels he managed the third party fund business (CitiChoice) and brokerage activities.
Before Murat founded Funds@Work at the end of 2001, he took over the bank marketing business at Fidelity Investments for a short period of time. Murat has a M.B.A degree from the Kellogg School of Management/USA; hold LL.M and also bout to complete his Doctorate at IE Business School (Instituto de Empresa,http://www.ie.edu/) in Madrid. He has published more than 1000 articles in leading international dailies and practitioner magazines looking specifically at the investment industry.


Alternatively, please contact:
Ms Farida Rahman
Email. 
farida.r@islamic-banking.com
T. +44 (0)20 7245 0404





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Tuesday 7 September 2010

London IIBI Monthly Lecture - 15th September 2010

Topic: Islamic Derivatives and Market Risk Management

Speaker: Stella Cox, Managing Director, DDCAP Limited,

Date : 15th September 2010


Time : 6.15pm

Venue: British Bankers' Association, Pinners Hall, 105 - 108 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1EX (This building is near Liverpool Street, Bank and Moorgate Underground Station)

About the Lecture:

The negative connotations of excessive risk taking are attached to derivatives, but these products were
originally developed to provide low-cost protection, or hedging, against unwanted market trends. Looking at
the continuing trend of high growth, a challenge for the Islamic finance industry in the post crisis world is to
further probe Shari’ah-compliant derivatives for risk-mitigating strategies. Mrs Stella Cox will discuss the issues faced by Islamic financial institutions in their market risk management function. She will also look into the latest developments which have taken place in the industry and how Islamic derivatives instruments may facilitate effective market risk management.

Market risk is faced by all financial institutions, be they Islamic or conventional. However, conventional financial institutions have a broad spectrum of risk management tools such as an array of derivative instruments. There are organised markets for forward, futures, swaps and options. Although Shari’ah-compliant versions of these

instruments do exist in some cases, the liquidity associated with these markets is considerably reduced compared with the conventional alternative

About the Speaker:

Stella Cox is Managing Director of DDCAP and its subsidiaries DD&Co Limited and DDGI Limited. Stella and her team are responsible for DDCAP’s Islamic and Middle Eastern clients and market activities. DDCAP’s wholly owned subsidiary, DD&Co, is a leading provider of asset facilitation services to the Islamic wholesale markets.

Stella is a Fellow of the Institute of Islamic Banking and Insurance in the UK and has served on its Board of
Governors within the Islamic Banking Group. Stella has been a member of the Working Group established by the Central Bank of Bahrain with the purpose of developing procedures and documentation for Islamic commodity trading. She has also assisted the DIFC Islamic Advisory Committee with its work on selected strategic development initiatives. She represents DDCAP on the Market and Product Development Committee (MPDC) of the International Islamic Financial Market. Stella is a Member of the Islamic Financial Services Board Task Force as well as the member of the HM Treasury Islamic Finance Experts Group, serving on the market Standardisation sub-group.

To register for this lecture, please click here Alternatively, please contact: Ms Farida Rahman,
Email. farida.r@islamic-banking.com  T. +44 (0)20 7245 0404

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